With so much science happening this year, several events are reoccurring, like hurricane season forecasts. There are many more coming out in the coming weeks and months, but a few are as reliable as Colorado State University’s forecast. They are calling for a very busy 2024 hurricane season. Let’s dive in!

Dr. Phil Klotzbach and his team of researchers from CSU released their forecast for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. It calls for 23 named storms, of which 11 could become hurricanes and 5 could reach major hurricane status, meaning category 3 or above. The average is 14 named storms, 7 of which become hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

We have seen it coming with the climate pattern change from El Niño to La Niña. Let’s remember that although these are patterns that take place over the tropical Pacific, they affect the entire global atmospheric pattern. An El Niño tends to suppress tropical activity in the Atlantic, while La Niña tends to aid in developing tropical activity. The forecast calls for La Niña to make a moderate to strong comeback by the time the busiest weeks historically happen during the season, that’s August through early October.

Just like in 2023, Atlantic water temperatures are what is making the headlines. The strip along the tropical Atlantic from Africa through the eastern Caribbean is premium fuel with water temperatures running between 1 to 1.5 degrees C above average, and some clusters with up to 2 degrees warmer than average. This is not good.

As last season shows above average temperatures ocean surface waters supersede wind shear and this year wind shear might not be an issue. Although it is impossible to pinpoint where a storm will hit at this point, we know that La Niña tends to swing more storms westward, as when El Niño is present many tend to stay over the open Atlantic or farther from land. Regardless, this season warrants more of our attention and most important for residents to prepare ahead of time. This is the time to revise your documents, update your insurance if you need to, and have a plan about the actions you would take in case a hurricane is coming your way, or close.