Tropical update: Messy system now, a storm this weekend?

As we continue to monitor the tropical wave that approaches southern Mexico, the chances of it becoming a tropical wave have increased. Within the next 48 hours, this system has a 20 percent chance of developing and a 30 percent chance within the next 5 days.

The disturbance is very messy. On Thursday it will make its way over the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. By Friday, it will emerge over the southern Gulf of México, where conditions are forecast to gradually become more favorable for this system to develop.

Most of the convection of this system is shifted to the north of the potential center. It does not have a well-defined center of circulation and it is possible that once its cluster of thunderstorms emerges over the Bay of Campeche or the southern Gulf of Mexico, the center forms there.

Tips to get ready for the next storm

There could be, either, a tropical depression or a tropical storm over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. The southern Texas coast through eastern Mexico needs to watch this system closely as more rounds of torrential rains and thunderstorms are on the way, regardless if this system gets named or not. What will vary is the winds. If the system gets named the coast affected could see stronger gusts, rougher seas, and coastal flooding. But don´t get caught up in the naming situation, as this system will be close to land if (or when) it gets a name.

Currently is very quiet across the rest of the Atlantic but this is bound to change very soon. Weather models are hinting at more activity, possibly 3 areas that we will have to closely monitor late next week into the last few days of August. Could this mark the beginning of a busy stretch? Very likely.

Make sure to review your hurricane plans and have documents ready and in a safe place. Talk to your family and friends and have a plan in place in case your area is at risk of a hurricane.