Active start to the week: 9M people at risk of severe storms

The big storm moving through the Rockies on Monday will cause instability to move with it eastward. It’s going to be an active start to the week.

First up is the Central Plains. As the low pressure travels over the Rockies, there will be plenty of unstable air and moisture riding up the Central Plains. The moisture is guided by the broad high-pressure system pulling it from the Gulf of Mexico. The low-pressure intensifies and moves east with the cooler air which will lift the warm, moist air and it develops thunderstorms.

There is a chance for isolated thunderstorms from north-central Texas through western Kansas. Wichita Falls, Texas, northward through Colby, Kansas, could experience isolated severe storms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two.

Deeper moisture will be available overnight into Tuesday morning across North Texas to Oklahoma City.

Shortly after sunrise, Dallas and Fort Worth could experience some isolated severe storms. We recommend parking your cars under a cover or roof as there could be large hail early Tuesday morning.

By the afternoon, the severe risk increases across the areas south of the Ozarks. The area at risk of severe weather extends across eastern Texas, Louisiana, and western Mississippi. Specifically, for much of northern Louisiana, and extreme southern Arkansas there is a level 3 out of 5 (enhanced) of severe weather. There is a 30% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of a point in the area in red below.

Thunderstorms will likely become stronger as Tuesday afternoon progresses, and they move over extreme eastern Texas toward Louisiana. Storms will likely be in linear motion and there could be some storms developing ahead of the main severe event. As the strongest storms develop in the afternoon, the tornado threat will increase. By the evening, the greatest risk will be over the Delta region and Lower Mississippi Valley. There is a chance that some storms could still be tornadic after sunset in this area.

Along with the chance for tornadoes, storms could develop hail and damaging gusts. Storms will also come packed with lightning.

Make sure to plan accordingly and have at least 3 ways of receiving weather alerts.