Active weather setup: End of the week severe storm risk

One storm exits the U.S. and another one brews! It’s spring season, and with it comes the chance of frequent severe weather episodes. This week we are looking into two more severe weather days toward the end of the week. Let’s talk about how the weather is setting up and the timing of the storms.

The same storm that will be affecting California to start the week will be moving eastward. As the system exits the Rockies, there will be lots of moisture and warmth coming in from the eastern Pacific and Gulf of Mexico. The difference in temperatures will be stark, with very warm air ahead of the storm, focusing over the east, and much cooler temperatures over the west. This temperature change, as well as the difference between moisture, has put lots of focus on the chance for severe strong to end the week.

Although there are many details that will still vary, the Central Plains through the Ozarks should keep a close eye on the development of this system and the severe storms. It is not common to get an enhanced risk this far ahead. Often, when an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5 on the severity scale), is issued this far ahead, the risk grows further as the event gets closer.

The Storm Prediction Center, based in Norman, Oklahoma, has placed north-central Texas and central Oklahoma under a 15% chance of experiencing severe storms on Thursday evening. This is when we expect the storm to be moving away from the Rockies, starting to intensify. A 15% chance might not seem high, but it means that there is a 15% probability of severe storms, including tornadic storms, within 25 miles of a point.

As the storm intensifies, it will likely expand in coverage too. As of Monday afternoon, the biggest threat will extend from the southern Great Lakes area southward through the Ozarks and North Texas. A higher chance of experiencing severe storms will cover much of Illinois, eastern Missouri, and northern Arkansas. Keep in mind that this area could shift depending on where the storm emerges from the Rockies and on the weather features around this storm.

This is the time to prepare. Have plans set for Friday evening if you are in or near the highlighted area. If you don’t have a secure shelter, plan on going to a safer place Friday evening into Saturday. Know where the closest tornado shelter is if you do not live or will be in a safe place. Our team of meteorologists will be working throughout the week and, of course, all day on Friday to keep you informed.