Hurricane season forecast: Latest update calling for active season

Although it has been a quiet first 12 days of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, an active season is still on tap, an updated forecast states.

The Colorado State University hurricane forecast team released their latest forecast Monday, and it is going to be an active one. They are predicting 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes which five of them will grow into major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

This forecast is well above average and more active than the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. The main driver for the well-above average forecast is extremely warm water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico and the development of the La Niña phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, (ENSO)

Late-spring and early summer sea surface temperatures throughout the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are running up to 5 degrees warmer than normal, indicating a significant source of heat energy is available to feed tropical development.

La Niña is the periodic cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean off South America’s equator coast. This suppresses upper-level westerly winds over the Caribbean and western Atlantic, making it easier for tropical systems to develop and strengthen.

U.S. government forecasters are predicting a similar season with 17-25 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes and 4-7 major hurricanes.

Weather & Radar meteorologists will be watching the tropical developments throughout the rest of the season and will provide frequent updates within our Weather News section.