Ian Sunday's updates: Track shifts east; TS watch for FL Keys

Ian will continue to intensify through Monday morning. This is a blog where we will bring you updates throughout the day. Frequent updates about Ian on Sunday will be here.

Ian moves west-northwest. The latest track from the National Hurricane Center continues to show that Ian will be a major category hurricane before it makes landfall over western Cuba early Tuesday.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge southward to Key West, including the Dry Tortugas.

The track has been also slightly shifted in the long term by about 20 miles. But shifts will continue to happen as the long-term forecast remains highly uncertain.

In the long-term forecast, on days 3 to 5, Ian travels over the eastern Gulf of Mexico to eventually make landfall on Friday morning somewhere in the northern portion of the Big Bend, likely as a strong category 1 hurricane. The system is expected to encounter wind shear once it reaches the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, which will damage Ian's hurricane structure, allowing the storm to downgrade.

It is important to highlight that residents should not let their guard down by this downgrade. Storm surge will still be significant and Ian's wind field will be increasing which means that there will be more storm surge over a larger coast and significant wind damage across northern Florida and southern Georgia.

Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency ahead of Ian's Florida's landfall next week. This enables federal resources to get to the state to keep residents as safe as possible as well as to help with recovery efforts.

Although Ian woke up still as a tropical storm, conditions are favorable for Ian to quickly gain strength overnight into Monday morning. The storm is expected to reach category 3 status. with maximum sustained winds of at least 120 mph by the time it makes landfall across western Cuba.

Devastating to catastrophic winds will affect these islands. Tropical storm force winds will begin very early on Monday over Grand Cayman and on Monday afternoon over western Cuba, quickly becoming stronger as Ian nears. Catastrophic storm surge is expected across the southern coast of western Cuba as well as for Grand Cayman. heavy rains, with up to 14 inches of rain are possible with some isolated higher amounts.

Although there is high certainty about the short-term track, there are still doubts about the long-term track. According to the National Hurricane Center, Ian could be making landfall early Friday morning somewhere along the Florida panhandle. The Exact point will very likely be shifting, especially before Ian finishes intensifying. Once Ian emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, there will be more agreement on the final track.

It is not likely that Ian will make landfall across southwest Florida or even across the west central area of Florida. But there could still be significant impacts as the storm travels northward paralleling Florida. Heavy rainbands are expected along the peninsula and the winds could be stronger or weaker depending on the proximity of Ian's center.