Beryl’s force arrives in Jamaica today causing a life-threatening storm surge. The system battles dry air and rough terrain, and the intensity forecast remains highly uncertain for the Yucatán Peninsula and beyond.

Major Hurricane Beryl is still a category 4 storm quickly approaching Jamaica, where it should make landfall on Wednesday. It is moving west-northwest at 20 mph and is expected to remain a major hurricane at the same speed and general direction as it moves across Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman Islands through Thursday. By Friday it should reach the Yucatán Peninsula.

Beryl will battle with dry air between Wednesday and Friday, and with some of Jamacia's high terrain. But warm waters, running about 1C above average, continue to serve as prime fuel for this system to continue to be strong. This is why we urge residents and visitors along the southeastern coast of the Yucatán Peninsula to please prepare for at least a category 3 hurricane, one category above what's forecasted to impact (under Wednesday's forecast)Everyone should be in place by Thursday night in Southeast Mexico.

Many residents are asking about a possible U.S. strike early next week. As of now, there is high uncertainty about the track. We must wait to see what conditions will be in place as this system exits the Caribbean and the Yucatán Peninsula. It is clear now that the system will likely become larger, which could bring storm surge along the Texas Coast even if it stays along a Mexican track for landfall. As of now, the heaviest rain is slated for South Texas, but remember there will be changes. Please check back for more information in the coming days.