Oklahoma: rare high risk - Violent, long-tracked tornadoes likely

It’s May, and the spring season continues in full force. We start the week talking about the chance for long-tracked tornadoes and very large hail. Let’s dive into the forecast.

Almost 2 million people are at risk of experiencing the worst weather on Monday. The Storm Prediction Center upgraded the risk of severe weather to the highest category, 5 out of 5 for Oklahoma City, Norman, Midwest City, Okla., and Moore, Okla. A high risk is rare, which means that a violent severe outbreak is almost guaranteed. Cities across central Oklahoma and south-central Kansas are at a level 4 of 5 on the severity scale, moderate, where numerous long-tracked tornadoes are possible. But severe storms could affect an extra 13 million people from Nebraska through North Texas and parts of the Midwest.

All ingredients are there to start this week with a big severe weather outbreak. In the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere, there will be a low pressure that will inject lots of instability into the atmosphere as it leaves the Rockies to the east. Tapping into all this instability will be deep moisture coming in from the Gulf of Mexico and meeting right over the Central and Southern Plains.

Monday afternoon the storms will ignite, moving to the east throughout the evening, most likely causing big troubles and damage. Our WeatherRadar shows the showers starting across the central region of Oklahoma, including over Oklahoma City after 1 p.m. CT. Still, the strongest storms will cross the state's capital between 5 p.m. and midnight central time. Dallas-Fort Worth will also have the chance for isolated severe storms after 3 p.m. while two lines of severe storms will be likely to affect the Ozarks, including Kansas City.

We will continue to bring you updates throughout the day, please check back with the latest and make sure you have your weather alerts on. Our weather reporter Jonathan Petramala is in Oklahoma and will bring you prompt updates from location.