Severe season underway: Daily severe storm threats start Tuesday

Severe storms are on the menu this week, starting Tuesday, with an extra concern for Thursday as the spring severe season gets underway.

It’s that time of year when winter’s chill runs into warmer spring air, and severe storms pop up due to the dramatic difference in the two air masses. We’ll be seeing that this week as warm weather builds across the central U.S.

First on the list is a shortwave disturbance impacting the mid-Mississippi Valley late Tuesday night, not only bringing downpours but also a few isolated severe thunderstorms. Isolated damaging gusts greater than 57 mph and hail larger than a quarter are possible with these storms.

The WeatherRadar shows showers and thunderstorms getting underway after 8 p.m. central time across central Missouri down to the Ozarks. Places like Columbia and Kansas City, Mo., over to Tulsa, Okla., should be weather-aware Tuesday evening and overnight.

By Wednesday, the isolated severe weather threat only expands. A marginal risk, a level 1 out of 5 on the severity scale, is in place from southern Iowa down to the northern suburbs of Dallas-Fort Worth. Low pressure exiting the Rockies will initiate the evening isolated storm threat, with the focus being in that mid-Mississippi Valley zone to the southern Plains.

Finally, on Thursday, we are watching for a possible isolated to scattered severe weather event for the southern Plains and Ozarks. Those along Interstate 35 from Waco to the Red River Valley in Texas and across southeastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and Northwest Louisiana could see thunderstorm activity emerge in the late morning hours through the afternoon.

Sufficient southerly flow out of the Gulf of Mexico will provide not only the heat needed to trigger the storms but also the moisture. The result will be isolated to scattered severe storms as well as flashflood-inducing downpours. A slight risk, a level 2 out of 4 for excessive rainfall, has also been issued.

Two to three inches of new rainfall could pile up Thursday as the storms get going, especially in the afternoon and overnight.

With the daily storm threats, it’s important to have at least three ways to receive weather alerts and to pay close attention to your local forecast. Weather & Radar meteorologists will be updating this forecast frequently.