Southern and Central Plains: Large hail, damaging winds & brief tornadoes

It’s still spring, and that means that most days there is the threat of severe storms somewhere in the U.S. Today is no exception. We forecast a few isolated storms across the central and southern Plains during the afternoon and evening.

A low-pressure system will become better organized just east of Colorado. This storm carries a warm front, a dry line, and a cold front. A warm front will be sweeping through central Texas and moving northeast. This will prime the atmosphere across Central Texas on Thursday afternoon and evening for the storms to develop as the dry line moves east and lifts the humid air coming in from the Gulf of Mexico, creating the risk for severe thunderstorms. This pattern will not move too far as there is still a strong high-pressure system preventing storms from moving to the Southeast.

This storm will bring severe storms in two batches. The first batch of severe storms will likely move over western and central Oklahoma after 2 p.m. local time. Storms will likely develop large hail and a brief tornado.

The second batch of storms will move over central Texas after 3 p.m., but before then, there could be a few isolated storms moving across North Texas and moving northeast. The storms that will move over central Texas after 3 p.m. will likely become better aligned from north to south and move to the east.

Our Weather Radar shows thunderstorms moving through areas just east of Abilene southward toward Del Rio after 4 p.m. local time, and across I-35 south of the Metroplex through Waco and Austin after 6 p.m. Some of these storms could be severe as they cross areas near I-35, developing large hail, damaging winds, and a brief tornado.

Overnight, a cluster of storms could be passing over southeast Texas. So, residents in the Houston Metro and suburban areas should stay weather aware and have at least 3 ways of receiving weather alerts. There will be frequent lightning, the chance for gusts of at least 60 mph, and heavy rains that could cause some isolated flooding. These storms will likely move, hugging the upper Texas coast into the Louisiana coast in the morning hours. This instability will fizzle out on Friday over areas of the Deep South, and only a marginal threat of isolated severe storms will be present in the afternoon.

As mentioned, most of the energy is being held back by the strong high-pressure system located over the Southeast and there will be another threat for a few storms again over areas just west of I-35 but including Waco.