Tropical Storm Fiona: Impacts soon to Caribbean; what next?

Fiona does not have good odds of surviving throughout the weekend. It could still bring up to 6 inches of rain for some Caribbean islands. Let's analyze it in depth.

Tropical Storm Fiona continues to move toward the Caribbean as more tropical storm watches will be issued later today to some bigger islands.

Fiona has estimated maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and moves to the west at 13 mph. Hurricane hunters are scheduled to begin analyzing this storm later on Thursday which could probably bring some fluctuation to this system’s strength.

The rains from the tropical storm are forecast to start affecting the northern Leeward Islands, including the U.S. and British Virgin Islands Friday afternoon and evening. Puerto Rico should start receiving heavy rains late Saturday evening.

Over the weekend Fiona will be around Puerto Rico and Hispaniola where they could receive between 3 to 6 inches of rain through the weekend. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible, especially over higher terrains. High seas are also forecast for the eastern Caribbean as Fiona travels over the region.

In the short term, Fiona is not expected to strengthen much. There is plenty of dry air that will get into the system and wind shear that will disrupt its thunderstorm activity and shift it from the center.

Also, Fiona is expected to move near or even over land. Tropical systems do not like land, they feed off the warm waters.

By Sunday morning Fiona could be crossing the southwest corner of Puerto Rico, entering through Ponce. This could be enough land interaction to affect the system’s structure, that’s if the wind shear doesn’t get to it before.

After Sunday, Fiona is forecast to make a sharp turn to the northwest which would place the storm in the eastern portion of the Dominican Republic. The mountainous region of Hispaniola is toward the center, so there would not be much land interaction there, and none with the tallest peak of the Caribbean, the Pico Duarte. Most models do not show Fiona surviving by Monday.

Fiona’s track can still shift in the next few days. The track after Saturday will highly depend on how strong the Bermuda High (an Atlantic semi-permanent high-pressure system that tends to steer tropical storms and hurricanes) gets. It is currently located over the central north Atlantic and it seems it will retract a bit east allowing the system to swing northward, missing the U.S. East coast.

We will continue to monitor and bring you updates throughout the week and weekend.