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Tropical update: A busy Atlantic Basin: 4 waves

02:46 PM
August 18, 2023

Tropical update
A busy Atlantic Basin: 4 waves

areas watchingThere are 4 tropical waves we are watching. Yellow areas have a low chance (below 40%) of developing. Orange is a medium chance between 40% and 70%. Red depicts high chances, above 70%.

Some might say the tropical Atlantic reminds them of Skittles (yes, the candy), and some might say it’s busy. We say ‘tis the season, and we’ve been telling you so!

Sometimes it happens to meteorologists, especially those with “normal schedules”. One can go to sleep and wake up to a parade of tropical waves and a bunch of marks on the map. Last night, the National Hurricane Center designated a new area, located just east of the Lesser Antilles with a low chance to develop during the next 7 days.

Historic rainfall coming from Hilaryread more

They also upped the chances of the last tropical wave, the one located just west of Cabo Verde Island to a 70 percent chance of tropical formation during the next 7 days. It is likely that this system will be named over the weekend. Luckily, it seems like this system will be turning northward and staying as a fish storm, not affecting land, but affecting shipping routes.

In the middle of these two waves, there is a tropical wave with a medium chance of developing within the next 2 days. We will have to monitor this one too, but it is possible that this system will also stay just north of the Caribbean. Keep in mind that there is plenty of dry air that surrounds this wave and the one that is just east of the Lesser Antilles, so they are up for a battle in the coming days.

Still watching what could be born in the Gulf of Mexico.

There is a disturbance located just north of Haiti. This area will continue to travel west and reach the Gulf of Mexico by early next week. We will have the weekend to monitor the evolution of this disturbance. Keep in mind that it will be evolving during the weekend as it moves west and adds more to the usual rain and thunderstorm activity in South Florida.

The average date for the E name is August 22, after a busy start, there was a mum period. Now we are back to near-average dates for named systems.

We will have a full staff over the weekend to monitor what’s happening in the busy Atlantic Basin and also Hilary, which is now a major hurricane, and it is set to bring rounds of dangerous heavy rains to southern California and the Southwest.

Irene Sans
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