Tropical update: All eyes near Florida this week as high rainfall expected

The National Hurricane Center has officially labeled the disturbance on the Gulf of Mexico as Invest 91L. Satellite imagery shows that the area of low pressure has become better defined although it is still very disorganized. This label just means that the hurricanes hunter are given the green light to go investigate and we will continue to monitor the evolution of this system.

Our WeatherRadar clearly shows the low-pressure system's counterclockwise rotation. Read our morning update below to see the impacts we expect in Florida this week and into the weekend.

Hurricane Hunters are also officially starting their flights tomorrow, coincidentally right on time with the start of hurricane season. They plan to investigate the disturbance with two flights, the first one is scheduled to take off early morning and the second one during the mid-afternoon.

We are closely monitoring a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorm activity over the eastern Gulf of Mexico that could develop into a tropical system during the next 7 days. Regardless of development, Florida will be receiving lots of rain this week and weekend. Please stay alert and avoid flooded areas.

On Tuesday, we discussed how the northwestern Caribbean and eastern Gulf of Mexico were the spots we were closely monitoring for tropical development in the next week to 10 days. The National Hurricane Center has officially placed an area over the eastern Gulf of Mexico as an area that has a 20 percent chance for tropical development in the next 7 days.

It is important to highlight that the shading in this area does not mean the direction where the system will move to. It shows the area where a tropical system may form. Coincidentally, this system has a chance to develop in any region between the eastern Gulf of Mexico, Florida or the western Atlantic by the east coast of Florida.

Models are hinting at the possibility of over 6 inches of rain from the Tampa Bay area through Lake Okeechobee and Southeast Florida. Two to 3 inches of rain will be possible across Central Florida through the east-central coast through Saturday. Models show a full week of rainfall and estimate that the southern half of Florida from the Orlando area throughout the southern tip, could receive over 7 inches of rain, with isolated areas receiving over 10 inches. These are not amounts that should be taken lightly. Serious flooding could occur in flood-prone areas, especially as the rain will be constant all week.

Please plan accordingly and stay away from flooded roads.

It´s possible! It has happened before. Florida is like a pancake, no mountains, no friction. Also, Florida is filled with swamps and lakes – plenty warm too! In 2016, tropical storm Julia formed near the coast of southeastern Florida, very close to land.

There is also what we call the brown ocean effect. This is when a tropical storm maintains or even intensifies as it moves inland, usually over very warm flat, swampy waters.

We don’t know exactly where this system will acquire tropical characteristics, but we do know that regardless of if this system develops or not, there will be plenty of rain in Florida. We don’t need a tropical system to be officially named in order for it to cause damage or be catastrophic. Last weekend’s storms that moved over the Carolinas wreaked havoc on a cruise ship and one passenger even lost his life. There was also plenty of rain in North Carolina and Virginia.

You can bet this system, named or not, will look very messy. Most of its showers and storms will likely cover the entire state of Florida by late this week and into the weekend. So, get your rain boots ready!