Tropical Storm Bret continues moving west at about 17 mph, with maximum sustained winds at 60 mph. It gained a bit of strength late on Tuesday, but it is still expected to remain a tropical storm as it crosses the Lesser Antilles Thursday night into Friday. There is another tropical wave following in Bret’s footsteps and could be named as soon as today.

There is good news about Tropical Storm Bret: there is more against it than for it. This means that although Bret might look better on satellite, and it might continue to gain a bit of strength through Thursday morning, this system is moving toward an area with hostile conditions. As Bret inches closer to the central part of the Lesser Antilles, wind shear and dry air will be increasing and not allow this system to continue to intensify. In fact, these two ingredients might be just enough to put a big dent in the system.

Once Bret enters the Caribbean, its strength will gradually diminish as there will be stronger wind shear by Friday afternoon. Its forward speed to the west is also expected to increase and this will really hinder the storm as it likely is downgraded by Saturday afternoon to a depression or less.

Bret's main impact will come in the form of heavy rains to the central portion of the Lesser Antilles. There could be isolated amounts of around 10 inches across some of the islands. Gusts could reach 70 to 80 mph, but maximum sustained winds will likely remain below hurricane status.

Puerto Rico and Hispaniola are out of the cone, this means that the center is not expected to pass through any of the bigger Caribbean islands. Seas could bring high rip current risk to the southern portions of Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti. High surf is also likely across the same areas.

As I mentioned on Tuesday morning, invest 93L has favorable conditions to continue gaining strength, after all, it is passing over very warm waters and wind shear remains low in the central Atlantic region. The difference between Bret and what will become Cindy today or tomorrow will be the track. There is a break in the atmospheric pattern, which will allow Cindy to move northward, avoiding an entrance to the Caribbean and turning even before brushing the northern portion of the Lesser Antilles. It is very likely that the third named system of the season will stay over the open waters of the northern Atlantic without affecting land.