Tropical update: Bret travels toward Caribbean, Invest 93

With our second-named storm of the season officially out there comes big questions about it. Will it reach hurricane status? Will it survive its track through the Caribbean? Will it reach the United States? Let’s discuss this.

Tropical Storm Bret was officially named on Monday afternoon. There is a strong high pressure guiding Bret to the west and the tropical storm will enter the Caribbean by late week. Between Tuesday and the end of the week, Bret will be lowering its pressure and has a small window where it could be close to hurricane status just before reaching the Lesser Antilles as it will be traveling over an area of lower wind shear.

The key point is that as Bret moves toward the Caribbean it will encounter an area of strong wind shear. This means that not only will its convection be shifted, in Bret’s case to the east of the center, but once it enters the Caribbean Bret will likely lose its hurricane status and go back to tropical storm status.

The Caribbean will be a very hostile area for Bret to survive. The brunt of Bret will mainly affect the Leeward and Windward Islands as Bret will likely approach the islands as a low-grade category one hurricane or strong tropical storm by Thursday night or Friday morning.

Heavy rainfall is expected for parts of the Lesser Antilles, where 4 to 6 inches of rain could be possible with some isolate amounts possibly reaching 10 inches, especially from Guadeloupe southward to St. Lucia. St. Vicent and the Grenadines could receive between 2 and 4 inches. Flash floods are possible, which could trigger landslides.

Over the weekend, Bret, or what will be left of it, will be moving south of Puerto Rico. Now, Bret’s track will remain over 250 miles south of the southern portion of Puerto Rico, but this track might change a bit as Bret will be losing its strength and try to reorganize. Naturally going through these changes might displace the center a bit, which would also change its path a bit.

There is another robust tropical wave following Bret’s footsteps. This one has a high chance, 70 percent, of developing within the next two days. The next name on the list is Cindy.

The path of this second system, although might look like Bret’s currently, will likely be very different in the coming days. The strong high pressure guiding Bret weakens and will likely allow for the storm to turn northward before reaching the Caribbean. There will also be a trough exiting the U.S. which will pull this system northward. I am not worried about this storm affecting the Caribbean or the U.S. We will still monitor it.