Tropical update: Calm start to July, when will it end?

We will finish this first full week of July with no tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin. The weekend also shows no signs of development.

With lots of dry air and Saharan dust taking over parts of the Caribbean and a large, and deeper, plume leaving Africa, the chances of tropical development are none.

Saharan dust is often associated with the Saharan Air Layer, a region of warm air aloft that usually acts to suppress shower and thunderstorm activity that may result in future hurricane development.

Long-range models show a bit more of an increase in tropical activity, at least more favorable conditions for tropical development after mid-July.

We will continue to monitor to bring you prompt updates as soon as we have more clarity on the long-range forecast.