Tropical update: Don't worry about the model fuzz!

Hello, it’s your Friday tropical update! Not much has changed since yesterday. Today we want to highlight the fact that there is a model showing a hurricane toward the end of the month entering the Gulf of Mexico. Let us explain that there is more against that than for it.

The good news is that we are heading into the weekend and much of next week without monitoring anything specific in the tropics.

Late next week our eyes might start focusing on the western or northwestern Caribbean for the chance of tropical development. Now the question is... will it develop? And most interesting to many, where would it head to?

The American model (GFS) has been showing development and a storm entering the Gulf of Mexico. The thing is that this is just one run, one model. It is also typical of the GFS (and the Canadian, too) to try to spin a hurricane during the early season, but it almost never materializes. We look at all models, several runs, and even a group of runs from the same models to pick up on trends. With this there is simply no trend, therefore we think this is just another typical GFS made-up early-season storm.

Go on, enjoy the weekend. There will be plenty of weather happening across the United States to worry about. So, make sure to stay tuned to your local weather forecast. Meteorologist Mary May has your weekend weather forecast and you can consult the forecast throughout the weekend and take us with you!