Tropical update: Medium chance for a disturbance to develop

Chances for tropical development continue to grow as there is a trough of low-pressure meanders a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. There is a 50 percent chance of development within the next 7 days.

Although the rest of the tropics are quiet, we continue to monitor a broad area of low pressure, a disturbance, which has a low chance of becoming the next named system in the next 48 to 72 hours. This area is very disorganized, but models show that there could be more organization becoming a subtropical or tropical system by Thursday or Friday. The window of development is rather short, but it is possible.

Regardless of development, this system will be turning to the northeast and travel over cooler waters over the weekend which will make it lose its tropical characteristics and weaken.

This disturbance is moving away from the U.S. and it is not expected to impact the country, but the Azores could see an increase in tropical showers this weekend or early next week.

The next tropical update will be on Wednesday morning.