Tropical update: Mute this week, Caribbean wave next week

Hurricane season continues to be quiet until the middle of June. Historically June is not a busy month, with one storm being named on average. The second half of June promises to be a bit more active with higher chances of tropical development over the western Caribbean. Let's dig deeper into the possible scenarios and the setup.

The western Caribbean continues to show signs of development until late this weekend and next week. As usual, there's one model showing tropical development and the rest are just showing a surge in moisture. There's a widespread possibility of tropical formation or not.

We will note that the Madden-Julian oscillation will bring favorable conditions for development. But of course, this is not the only ingredient in the big tropical recipe. The big question will remain pertaining to the wind shear. Will it be slow enough to allow tropical formation? Or will it stay moderate or high enough to prevent a tropical cyclone from developing?

There's a chance that this tropical wave that will increase the moisture surge across the western Caribbean could cross Central America and develop over the Pacific. A tropical wave and some of its energy could linger across the western islands of the Caribbean. Expect still a surge of moisture across the area for the beginning of next week.

Further out over the central Atlantic, there will be two other tropical waves moving across the area. These are far away and bring nothing to worry about across the Americas for now. We will continue to monitor and bring you updates as the days progress.