Tropical update: Quiet tropics close. possible storm far

Another week and we get another look at the tropics. As advertised, Arlene quickly came and went, weakening into a depression and then dissipating early last weekend. Closer to the Americas the tropics will be quiet, but farther away a subtropical storm may develop this week.

There is a small area over the eastern Atlantic, near the Azores, where a subtropical storm may form in the next few days. This system will battle cold waters later in the week as it starts to move to the northeast. Overall, this system is not expected to move much this week so any chance of development it's slow and will be very short-lived.

If you have time off from work, want to be spontaneous, or need to take a vacation without worrying about a tropical system, this is your week to head to the coast or the Caribbean. Although heads-up because heavy rains are still in the forecast for the western Caribbean as a surge of moisture will bring plenty of rain leading to flooding over Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and southern Bahamas. These rains are not related to a tropical system.

In fact, the western Atlantic is slated to remain quiet this week and likely next week too. There is lots of wind shear that will not allow the tropical system to get started.

Long-range models are hinting at development toward the end of June or the beginning of July as energy from the Madden-Julian Oscillation comes back and reenergizes the tropics on our side of the world.

We will continue to bring you these daily updates this week, every morning.