The tropics will continue radio silent this week and likely much of the next one too, although we will likely start seeing some awakening signs by the end of next week. With El Niño formally present, let’s see how much this helps the season stay at bay.

When looking at long-range models, there are signs that we could see more clusters of storms around the northwestern Caribbean by the end of next week. This is in response to a wave of energy from the Madden-Julian oscillation that will allow for rising air. There could be some favorable conditions just north of the Caribbean too, perhaps with lingering energy by an exiting front sparking some development.

From there we will have to see how the wind shear is in the region. Talking about wind shear, El Niño has officially made a comeback. El Niño, which is a weather phenomenon that occurs in the tropical Pacific, tends to lower wind shear over the Atlantic. But this also comes in waves, it is not like the whole season stays with strong shear, but instead, on average the wind shear will be stronger during El Niño years.

We will bring you another update Friday morning.