Tropical update: Tropical wave exits Africa, rainier w. Caribbean

It’s going to be another week without a named system in the tropics, fortunately. While we will close out the week in a similar quiet note, there is an area that the National Hurricane Center is highlighting for possible development in the next 7 days. It is located in the far eastern Atlantic, about to exit Africa.

A tropical wave will fully emerge over the Atlantic waters and leave the African continent. It is slated to move west-northwest and once it gets to the central Atlantic by the middle of next week, it could have tropical development. There is a long and slow journey for this wave, as it moves at about 15 mph. Nonetheless, in the coming days, we will be closely analyzing the chances that could make this wave become better organized and its chances of entering the Caribbean or making the turn to stay over the Atlantic waters. It is too early to know exactly if this system will develop and what direction it will take or if it will make landfall somewhere.

Another tropical wave will set up camp over the western Caribbean on Sunday. This one will extend from the southwestern Caribbean and likely extend its instability toward Cuba, where the surge of moisture could bring torrential rains, which would also affect Jamaica and the Cayman Islands late this weekend into early next week. Will there be development?

As we discussed yesterday, the GFS model was backing out from its typical June dooms scenario. This morning, the latest run does not show a system developing (we told you so!). Other models and a more believable scenario shows lots of tropical moisture traveling northward from the southwestern Caribbean and affecting Cuba and even Florida early next week through much of the work week.

As the tropics start to become more active, rest assured we will be right here bringing you prompt updates.