Tropical update: Wave uncertainty & Gulf formation?

The probability of the tropical waves over the far eastern Atlantic continues to grow but our eyes are monitoring the possible evolution of a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico that could potentially move toward the U.S.

The area of possible development over the Gulf of Mexico has a 30 percent chance of developing in the next 7 days. There are signs that there could be a loosely compact area of low pressure that could develop by Sunday, but there are other models that show no real formation until Tuesday. We are likely not referring to a full-fledged system like a hurricane, but likely a tropical depression or tropical storm. Remember, when and if something does develop, it will be close to land, so residents should prepare ahead of time.

The two tropical waves still traveling from the far eastern Atlantic have both now increased their chances of formation within the next 7 days to 60 percent. The future of these waves continues to point to the second one (closer to Africa) staying over water and moving northward. While the first one will struggle to grow stronger due to dry air around it.

We will be staffed during the weekend to update you on the tropics. Our Task Force will be activated as soon as the U.S. is under a tropical watch.