The week starts with our eyes over the tropics, as there are two systems in the Atlantic, one with a high likelihood of becoming Emily early this week.

The same tropical wave (Invest 96L) we have been monitoring since last week, now has a 70 percent chance of becoming a named tropical system within the next two days. The curious fact about this system is that it is currently passing well away from the northeastern Caribbean.

As we mentioned that week, and we will continue to highlight this system and any other system that might brew throughout the season, models will always have a hard time grasping a wave as it lacks the defined circulation. (Remember all those models throwing this system as a hurricane near the Northeast coast? If you saw them, it wasn’t in Weather&Radar… we know better).

The semi-permanent Bermuda High has retracted eastward, this will allow the tropical system, which should become Emily by Wednesday to stay over water, only affecting marine routes. It is currently moving to the northwest, but by Tuesday the system will turn northward.

There is a cluster of storms (labeled Invest 97L) that has a low chance to develop into a tropical system within the next two days, and it seems like its chances will continue to dwindle because it will merge with a frontal boundary exiting the U.S., which will likely puta knife on its chances to acquire tropical characteristics.

This area of thunderstorms will bring high seas and gale-force winds along the mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. coast. It will mainly affect offshore waters of the mid-Atlantic through the Northeast, but coastal mariners should be aware as seas could turn choppy closer to land. The passage of the cold front could also add to the risk of dangerous local seas, as the winds will increase starting Tuesday.