Western Caribbean storm: High chance for development, will it impact Florida?

We are monitoring a system in the western Caribbean that most models agree will make landfall late this week, likely somewhere along the northern half coast of Florida.

Our WeatherRadar shows this system, a large low pressure system, spinning west of Jamaica. It is bringing heavy rounds of showers and storms to Central America and will continue to move northward this week. As you put our WeatherRadar into motion during the next 4 days, you can clearly see how this system will develop, and become stronger, showing a Thursday evening landfall.

Nonetheless, rounds of showers associated with this system will arrive in South Florida starting on Tuesday evening. Weather conditions will quickly deteriorate across the state. If this system remains on this track, the Florida Peninsula could deal with strong gust rainbands, some of which could have embedded tornadoes. The exact landfall location could still vary.

This system is barely forming and gaining better definition, and often the center 'wobbles.' This wobbling will allow for shifts in track. A track closer to Florida would mean more wind for the Peninsula, and impacts like rain and higher storm surge. A system a bit farther out would lessen the impacts. There would still be some rainbands, but much less wind and storm surge.

We will watch this system closely and continue to bring you updates. This is the time to check your alerts, make sure you have them on and revise your hurricane plans and emergency kits.