2022 Hurricane Season: Near-average, but that can still change

Hurricane Season is still here, and we have less than 50 days left of it, and that is plenty of time for storms to form. Let’s review how this season has been so far and what will change in the next few weeks.

First, let’s compare how this season has been to the average. Although the season had some dull moments where there was no activity for several weeks, there has been plenty of damage and destruction.

As of October 12, the Atlantic Basin had 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes of which 2 have been major hurricanes. On average, the Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named systems, of which 7 become hurricanes and 3 of those would be major hurricanes.

If we focus just on dates, the 11th storm usually gets named by October 1. So, we are about 10 days behind in this topic.

So even after a nearly average season, but to the date below average, we clearly see the importance of being really for just one storm. Hurricane Fiona caused major damage in Puerto Rico and Hurricane Ian was a catastrophe in Florida. It really “only takes one.”

There is plenty of time for storms to form. As many of you remember, we have had some serious storms make landfall in late October and even November. For example, Wilma made landfall in southwest Florida on October 24, 2005. Hurricane Sandy made its first landfall in Cuba on October 25 and then on October 29 in New Jersey as a post-tropical cyclone but with hurricane-force winds.

Just last season in 2021, there was Tropical Storm Wanda, which although it stayed over the northern Atlantic, formed on October 30 and lasted through November 7.

And who can forget about the 2020 hyperactive hurricane season? By October 12 we were already well into the Greek alphabet, but after October 12 there would be 4 other hurricanes forming and one tropical storm. Two of these hurricanes wreaked havoc in Central America, Hurricane Eta, and Iota, which made landfall in almost the same spot in Nicaragua just 2 weeks apart.

Sea surface water temperatures have already started coming down, especially those closer to the coast over the Gulf of Mexico and northeast Florida/Georgia. Coastal water temperatures in Louisiana through the Florida Big Bend are already in the low 70s. This would cause any hurricane moving onto these areas to weaken greatly as their “food source” is basically gone. (Remember, the water temperature must be at least 80 degrees F to feed storms).

As of October 11, water temperatures over the Gulf of Mexico could still sustain a hurricane, and waters are still plenty warm across the western Caribbean, even after Hurricane Ian mixed those waters recently.

With more fronts pushing through the southern U.S., we must now shift our attention back to closer areas for possible development. Many times fronts leave just enough energy behind to spin up a tropical system that could give us less time to prepare due to its proximity to land. Stay informed, and stay aware.