Atlantic hurricane season - Why so quiet in the Tropics?

Atlantic hurricane season
Why so quiet in the Tropics?

We are at the beginning of peak hurricane season in the Atlantic, which runs through mid-October and no tropical activity is in sight. Why?

Hurricane Ernesto was the only tropical system in the news recently and even this system only made indirect impacts to the U.S., thankfully. However, the tropics are quiet and the storms that we usually see this time of year coming off of Africa just aren't amounting to much. There are a couple of reasons why.

Dry air is in place in the eastern Atlantic. The thunderstorm activity rolling off northwest Africa is encountering this air mass, which quickly cuts off the energy needed for these storms to become more organized.

Cool ocean water is sitting just off of Africa's northwest coast. Tropical development feeds off of warm waters, which we have plenty of further west in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico. The waves coming off of Africa need to be forming further south to take advantage of warmer waters.

With all this being said, this doesn't mean we won't see development soon. In fact, the Climate Prediction Center has mentioned a good chance for development as we head closer to September. Record high ocean temperatures are just waiting in the Caribbean and Gulf and it only takes one storm to be potentially life-changing. Don't let your guard down and stay up to date here.

Becca Parker

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