The ingredients are coming together for an increased risk of heavy rainfall over several days from Texas to the Mississippi Valley, and also an increased risk of flash flooding.

Although a front is bringing storms this Wednesday to parts of Texas through the Ohio Valley, another system, combined with ample moisture from the Gulf injected into the Plains, will bring heavy rain starting Friday. The deep moisture from the Gulf will be slowly drawn in by a system moving out over the Rocky Mountains, causing instability.

This low-pressure system and front moving out of the Rockies will slow down, but moisture from the Gulf will continue to flow in, so showers will be persistent for much of the weekend. Rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches are possible, with some areas exceeding 5 inches.

For now, the risk appears to be concentrated in central and northeastern Texas, the Ozarks through Saturday and moving further south over the Mississippi Valley on Sunday. We will be monitoring the forecast and how the system moves out of the Rocky Mountains and will bring you another forecast no later than Friday morning.