Central Plains & Midwest: severe risk intensifies & expands

As highlighted in yesterday's briefing, this week's forecast predicts continued severe weather in areas already impacted over the weekend. The risk has intensified and expanded.

A low-pressure system moves over the Northern Plains and into the Great Lakes area. A cold front extends to the southern Plains, and it seems like this system is coming in stronger, so the risk has increased to a level 3 of 5 across parts of southwestern Iowa, northeastern Kansas, northwestern Missouri, and extreme southeastern Nebraska.

Around this enhanced risk, there is a slight risk that covers parts of the Central Plains and Midwest in a level 2 out of 5 of experiencing severe weather. Thunderstorms could bring damaging winds, large hail, and even a few tornadoes. If you are in an area highlighted orange or yellow, you should be weather aware and have a plan to head to a safe shelter when severe thunderstorms and tornado warnings are issued.

On Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning, another system exits the Rockies intensifying. It is possible that with the forecast setup, including a dry line in the recipe interacting with the complex system, the risk will expand, but it also has the potential to increase over the Central Plains, including Texas. As of Monday morning, there is a slight risk for much of Kansas, central Oklahoma, and a portion of northwestern Texas.

The system itself will merge to the north of the Great Lakes area but the front will expand and extend to South Texas by Friday. This means that there will likely be days of rain for Texas as the front slowly moves east, especially for the east and south regions of the Lone Star State.

We will bring you prompt updates and continue to fine-tune the forecast. Please stay informed.