While the most active spots stay focused over Florida and Texas, Thursday is a transitional day where we iron out uncertainties just in time for the July 4th weekend. All of these details are provided daily in the Weather & Radar daily briefing published every weekday at 5 a.m. ET.

Most of the Southeast, except Florida, gets a breather from the storms and showers as the front is expected to sweep most of the activity over the waters near the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas, and over Florida. The Sunshine State will not live up to its nickname, as heavy showers and thunderstorm activity have taken over since the morning hours.

The heaviest rains and storms are likely to impact west-central Florida through Southwest Florida, where flash floods are possible. Be sure to avoid flooded roads, as there could be up to 3 inches of rain overall, with some isolated areas potentially receiving up to 5 inches.

For the latest storm development, remember to turn on your weather alerts.

Another area where storms and rain will continue strong is Texas, through Arizona and western Colorado. Flash floods are probable, as heavy rains have been present for several days and are expected to continue today. A large trough is expected to ignite showers along the Rockies. While the flash flood threat remains focused over the south, the northern Rockies could experience some isolated severe storms, especially across north-central Montana.

We are monitoring the same area we've been watching since the weekend. The National Hurricane Center has increased the chance of tropical formation over Florida, but the now orange-hatched area has shifted slightly further over the far western Atlantic. Any development that occurs will be gradual and Florida, southeastern Georgia, and the Carolinas should continue to monitor closely. Keep in mind that Florida will experience heavy showers and thunderstorms regardless of whether this system develops through the end of this week and into the holiday weekend.

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