Dangerous Midwest storms: Afternoon, evening severe outbreak probable

Dangerous set-up for the Midwest and the western Great Lakes on Tuesday as numerous storms will be severe and there could be a tornado outbreak as well as violent winds and very large hail.

It has been a busy night packed with severe storms that have moved from Colorado over Nebraska and northwestern Iowa. As we mentioned yesterday the low-pressure system will continue to evolve and strengthen as it approaches the Great Lakes. As it intensifies it is putting over 3 million people at a moderate risk, level 4 of 5, to have a severe outbreak on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Cities (and nearby areas) like De Moines, Iowa, Cedar Rapids, Iowa, Davenport, Iowa, St. Joseph, Mo., and Waterloo, Iowa. If you live in or near these cities you need to stay put in a safe place this afternoon and seek shelter as soon as a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning is issued.

Around the moderate risk, there are over 22 million people under an enhanced risk of severe storms, level 3 of 5 on the severity scale. It includes highly populated cities such as Chicago, Kansas City, Milwaukee, Omaha and Lincoln, Neb. In this area, there could also be numerous severe storms that could develop a few strong tornadoes, damaging winds of at least 80 mph, and large hail. Please follow the development of the storms and track their movement on our WeatherRadar.

From this evolving low-pressure there will be a growing cold front, but first, a dryline will sweep with a line of storms, and many cells could turn severe, extending from the Ozarks southward over north and central Texas. DFW to Waco could experience a line of severe storms moving through late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The front following the dryline will develop another low-pressure system closer to Texas. The cold front will lose its punch and speed and transform into a stationary front, which will continue to bring the chance for severe weather even on Thursday, including some localized flooding. Flooding risk will increase through the middle of the week for eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas extending throughout the Mississippi River Valley the rest of the week.

We are fully staffed today and are activating our Task Force to bring you updates throughout the day in our Live Blog as well as continue updating this forecast. Please advise your friends and family who might be at risk of severe storms.