The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins in less than two weeks, and the latest forecast calls for slightly below-normal season ahead.

The U.S.'s National Hurricane Center forecast, issued on May 21, is calling for eight to 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes this year. These are slightly below the long-term averages and within range of the 2025 season — 13 named storms, five hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

The main factors driving the forecast is an expected strong El Niño developing in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and above-normal sea temperatures and lighter trade winds in the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf.

El Niño often suppresses Atlantic tropical activity, while above-average temperatures can cause stronger storms. This push-pull is the reason for a hedge to just slightly below normal forecasts.

Weather & Radar will be tracking the tropical activity all season long. If you live along the Gulf or Atlantic Seaboard, now is the time to prepare for the season ahead.