Flooding & severe storm risk: Multiple days of risk from TX to Florida

Although the weekend was relatively calm with under 100 severe reports registered each day, the week starts with a renewed chance for widespread severe weather which is expected to increase by Tuesday in intensity and coverage, let’s dive into the forecast.

The northern Gulf Coast should be monitoring the weather closely. On Monday the threat for severe weather extends from San Antonio/Austin through Houston to the Florida Panhandle. This round of severe storms will take place after 2 p.m. across Southeast Texas. The front is moving fast thanks to a low-level jet taking the storms fast from west to east. But keep in mind that the threat of damaging winds and hail is significant from Central Texas through Houston for Monday. By the evening the chance will diminish across Southeast Texas.

The storms will move across southern Louisiana after 5 p.m. local time through the night until around midnight. Our WeatherRadar shows the storms should take a break in New Orleans between midnight and 5 a.m., but the chance for storms arrives, again, for daybreak on Tuesday. The main threat from Southeast Texas through northwestern Florida will be damaging winds, and a tornado can’t be ruled out.

Before I move into Tuesday’s forecast, I want to highlight the constant rains that a big part of the Southeast will have on Monday. Although this area is not under a severe risk on Monday, showers and isolated storms have been a constant Monday morning, especially along the Florida Panhandle through southern Georgia, keep this in mind, because by the arrival of numerous storms with some isolated risks on Tuesday the ground will be very saturated, and the flood risk increases for Tuesday and Wednesday from southern Mississippi through Florida’s Panhandle, northern Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas.

Some isolated severe storms will be possible across the Southeast on Tuesday. It will be moving slower, hence the increased flood risk, but will also be less punchy, as there will only be some isolated severe storms. Rain will become widespread, covering the eastern one-third of the nation. The low-pressure system along with its fronts will be moving throughout the Northeast on Wednesday, but one of the fronts will become stagnant across Central Florida, and another front will move up from the south. On its way, it will bring more rounds of showers for the Gulf Coast on Thursday and Friday.

We will continue to monitor the severe and flood threat this week closely and bring you updates here on Weather&Radar and across all of our social media platforms.