Florida big changes: Weekend soaker, cooler. How it compares
March 17, 2023
Florida's big changes
Weekend soaker, cooler. How it compares
Rain will finally make a comeback, at least significant rain for much of the Florida peninsula after many areas have not seen rain in a month!
Florida, get ready for a nice layer of rain coming this weekend. The same cold front that brings severe weather risk to the Florida Panhandle will withstand time and sweep through the state this weekend, increasing the rain chances. Some areas like South Florida have not received significant rain since mid-February. This weekend, some areas could get as much as 2 to 3 inches of rain.
The cold front caused severe storms across North Texas on Thursday afternoon and early evening. It is slated to move over the Deep South, including Florida’s Panhandle, where severe storms are possible on Friday afternoon into the evening.
Once Saturday arrives the front will be exiting North Florida. Saturday’s highest rainfall will be mainly focused from Tallahassee to Jacksonville. Rain totals on Saturday will range from 1 to 2 inches, with some isolated areas receiving 3 inches. Jacksonville did receive a bit over half of an inch of rain on March 13, but the yearly rainfall average, to date, is still over 1.5 inches below normal. On the other hand, Florida’s Panhandle has received a bit more rain than the peninsula. Tallahassee has a surplus of about 0.30 inches of rain for the year-to-date totals.
For cities in Central Florida like Orlando, the rain deficit for the year-to-date is a bit over 4 inches. Tampa also has a large rain deficit, 4.19 inches for the year-to-date stats. This weekend the rain will arrive after noon on Saturday across Tampa and Orlando and move slowly from north to south. Thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon, developing frequent lightning and downpours. Rain totals could range between 1 and 1.5 inches, but there could be some spots where 2.5 and 3 inches are possible.
The front will be losing speed, but we still forecast the much-needed rain to arrive in South Florida. The Miami area has not received significant rain since February 17. Interestingly, this year-to-date, totals are about 0.66 inches above average. This was all due to over 4 inches of rain falling in early February, which also registered a similar amount in the Fort Lauderdale area. The difference is that Fort Lauderdale is 1.63 inches below average for the season.
The South Florida area is forecast to receive between 2 and 3 inches of rain throughout the weekend. As the front loses speed, rain showers will become more consistent. Low-lying areas will likely develop flooding. Remember turn around don’t drown.
Cooler air follows
The weekend afternoons will remain in the 70s as there will be lots of clouds across South Florida. As the rain tapers off and skies begin to clear but the temperature will remain in the upper-70s to low 80s to start next week. For Central Florida, the temperatures will plunge on Sunday. As soon as the front cross on Saturday the temperatures will begin to drop this will likely happen after 2 p.m., so have that jacket ready if you are planning in the evening.
Sunday will be the coolest day of the weekend for the entire state. Low 40s in the morning for the northern section, while the upper 40s to mid-50s across the central area. South Florida will wake up to the 60s. The 50s will reign from Vero Beach northward, but coastal towns in northeast Florida will reach the low 60s.