Florida’s tropical rains - Over 6 inches next week possible, heat first

Severe storms across parts of Florida on Thursday evening were isolated, still leaving damage. The pattern is about to have a big change as deep tropical moisture arrives, producing more widespread rains.

Before the tropical downpours arrive early next week, there will be several heat records broken or at least tied. Friday afternoon will be a very hot one across Central and South Florida, with at least 5 weather stations coming very close to records as temperatures are forecast to reach the mid-90s from West Palm Beach to Melbourne, Fla. Port Charlotte and Leesburg are likely to reach 96 degrees likely breaking records.

These same general areas will continue to be very close to breaking their records throughout the weekend too! The rest of Florida won’t be too much different with lots of heat that will stay present not only in the afternoons but also, in the evenings, not allowing the temperatures to drop too much farther than 70 or 77 degrees, many locations also breaking or tying warm low temperatures.

This week there will be a slight cool-down, but don’t expect too much or the mugginess to go away. It will continue to feel hot, as deep tropical moisture arrives. There will be a stationary front lingering across north Florida, and this will be the triggering mechanism for the widespread tropical showers once the moisture arrives from the western Caribbean.

From Friday through Sunday, there will be a few storms possible, mainly due to local effects like the heat igniting the sea breeze, which develops afternoon strong to severe storms. Between Monday and Wednesday, South Florida is forecast to receive between 3 to 5 inches of rain, with some isolated spots that could get higher amounts. Central Florida will range between 2-4 inches and the Panhandle around 2 inches.

As of Friday, no tropical development is possible, but we will keep a close eye on it throughout the weekend as the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico are plenty warm and the chance for development could change. Stay tuned for updates throughout the weekend.