Ian to rapidly intensify

Ian is forecast to quickly intensify on Sunday as it moves over the Caribbean, the track will be clearer once it starts turning and becomes stronger.

At 11 p.m., the National Hurricane Center issued their update and it shows the track has shifted a bit more west, potentially making landfall somewhere between Florida's Panhandle and the Big Bend.

Keep in mind that Ian's center is still going through fluctuations and the center can be located at a different spot. This will impact track and landfall.

Under this track, Ian would be making landfall on Thursday night. There are still a solid 2 days for residents to monitor this system. Make sure that you have a plan and if you are in the cone by Monday night you make a move on your plan and get emergency supplies ready (the ones that you might not have already ready).

Tropical Storm Ian was officially named late Friday night and it will continue to travel west throughout the weekend. There is still high uncertainty in the track, and although there were signs of organization on Saturday afternoon, the system is yet to be well-organized. Let’s look at the different scenarios and see what they could mean for the different areas of Florida.

Ian is traveling west on Saturday afternoon at about 16 mph. As we’ve been forecasting, Ian is expected to rapidly intensify once it reaches the western Caribbean late this weekend. The strongest and fastest intensification will be between Sunday and Monday and gradual intensification is forecast as it moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico where there are plenty of warm waters. It is likely that this system will reach category 3 and possibly category 4 status by early next week.

There is a hurricane warning for the Cayman Islands and a tropical storm watch for Jamaica. Ina is expected to produce between 4 to 8 inches of rain with up to 12 inches across isolated locations in the Cayman Islands and Jamaica. Western Cuba could receive up to 14 inches of rain. Storm surge will be very dangerous across these islands with sea levels rising as much as 4 feet above normal tide levels.

The forecast gets trickier for Florida as far as a precise landfall spot. We are more certain about its intensity than its long-term track (Tuesday/Wednesday positioning) at this point on Saturday.

The National Hurricane Center has shifted the official track a bit west, leaving southern Florida outside of the cone of uncertainty. This means that the center of the storm will not likely impact southeast Florida directly, but even without the center southeast Florida could receive substantial rains and winds, depending on proximity.

It is precisely the proximity of the storm that residents in the peninsular area of Florida should monitor. There are three scenarios at play still at this point on Saturday for Florida.

Major Hurricane Ian makes landfall in southwestern Florida at some point between Tuesday and Wednesday. This would bring catastrophic flooding and storm surge for the entire southern tip of Florida, including metro areas of Miami-Dade and Broward as well as for the Florida Keys. Winds could be well above 120 mph with higher gusts. This could be the worse scenario for South Florida. Under this scenario, Central Florida, including Orlando and Tampa would also receive heavy torrential rains and strong hurricane-force winds, but the Tampa Bay Area won’t be affected by catastrophic storm surge as the wind flow of the storm would be going offshore. We could probably see the Tamba Bay retract significantly. The Florida Panhandle would see fewer impacts, but still heavy rainbands and some wind gusts above 40 mph at times.

Major Hurricane Ian makes landfall anywhere between the Tampa Bay areas and the Big Bend of Florida, much like the NHC has it on the 11 a.m. Saturday track. This would create a catastrophic storm surge for southwest Florida throughout the Tampa Bay area. Sustained winds will be well above 120 mph and stronger gusts. The Florida Panhandle would experience more impacts, compared to scenario 1, like stronger winds, and possibly hurricane force if the center of Ian would make landfall in the Big Bend.

Major Hurricane Ian makes landfall in the Florida Panhandle. This means that the system would not impact Cuba directly and likely pass between the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba. Under this scenario then the big question would be where exactly in the panhandle? An eastern panhandle landfall, like for example south or southeast of Tallahassee, would mean more impacts along the western half of the Florida Peninsula, from Naples throughout the Big Bend still getting devastating storm surge. But a western landfall, like for example in Destin could mean far fewer impacts to Florida’s Peninsula as a whole. But of course, under this scenario, the panhandle would not fair well, as there would be catastrophic storm surge, major flooding, and devastating or devastating wind damage.

On Saturday, Ian is still disorganized due to some wind shear affecting the structure of the system. its center has been located a bit more west and this shifted the track westward. Once this system gets a better definition, perhaps even an eye, then the track will become more clear. The problem is that without organization the track could still have major shifts, either way, as the center can form north, south, east, or west than previously thought. It’s like in a race, if you change your starting point your endpoint would be dramatically different in time and place.

Once we get the center well identified, meaning the system has strengthened over the Caribbean, the track would become a bit clearer for Florida. It is on Sunday afternoon/night that Ian could be making that north-northwesterly turn and at this time we would have a better proximity point to Florida for next week. There is also another turn, or not, that Ian could be making, and this would be Monday night or Tuesday morning. This is the turn that would ultimately determine its closeness to the Sunshine State. By then, there will be watches and warnings for areas that could be at risk.

We are monitoring this system closely and will start having live video updates on our Facebook page on Sunday afternoon. If you have specific questions you can always write us on social media and we will respond to those on the live video.