It's been a couple of weeks of benign weather in the tropics, but this could change next week as a tropical wave has a low chance of developing.

There is a plume of Saharan dust traveling over the Caribbean, it will move over the Yucatán Peninsula late this weekend and reach South Texas early next week. The tropical wave follows this plume of dust and is expected to enter more favorable conditions to develop late next week.

Deep tropical moisture will take over the eastern Caribbean by the middle of the week, but the wave at this point will likely still be very disorganized, and losing speed. But by Friday higher tropical moisture, enhancing heavy thunderstorms will move over Florida making way for what could be a very wet weekend, especially for the southern half of the State.

It is likely that this system will emerge over the warm Gulf of Mexico and could intensify further. We have plenty of time to monitor this system and prepare if it threatens your area. Check back for our updates.