Rare high risk issued for Oklahoma, what it means and how to prepare

If a major tornado outbreak is expected, the Storm Prediction Center may highlight an area under a rare high risk. This category is reserved for the most extreme circumstances, and if you're under this risk, you need to prepare.

The Storm Prediction Center highlighted parts of western, central and northern Oklahoma to south-central Kansas under a high risk for today. A high risk is the greatest threat level issued by the SPC and is only used when forecasters and confident that a major severe weather outbreak is on the way.

The SPC issues risks depending on the likelihood and severity of severe weather. At the lower end of this system is a marginal risk, a level one out of five, which indicates that isolated severe storms are possible, but the overall threat is low. From there, risk levels increase. At the top end of this scale is a high risk, a level five out of five, indicating that widespread severe weather is expected.

High risks are rare, typically with only two to three issued per year on average. Some years, such as 2020 and 2022, have no high risk days at all. The last time a high risk was issued was on March 31, 2023. The last time a high risk was issued within the state of Oklahoma was on May 20, 2019.

Usually, high risks are issued on days when major tornado outbreaks are expected. However, high risks have been issued when derechos with widespread destructive wind gusts are forecasted.

Typically, high risks are only issued on the day of the event. However, there have been two occurrences (April 7, 2006, and April 14, 2012) of a high risk being issued for Day 2 of the outlook period (with the event occurring the following day).

So what should you do if you are in a high risk area? First, check in with Weather & Radar for the latest forecast. Once you know the timing of the threat, review your severe weather plan. Know where your safe space is and seek shelter if a powerful storm is heading your way.