Severe storms, flooding target South starting Thursday

On Monday we gave a preview of what the weather looks like in the latter half of the week for the Mississippi Valley and Southeast as a large storm system is set to bring heavy, flooding rainfall. Now severe weather has been thrown into the mix.

A slight risk – level two out of 5 – for severe storms has been issued for southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana including Houston, Beaumont, and Lufkin, Texas, and Vinton, La. Outside the slight risk, a level one marginal risk has been issued for isolated severe storms and includes Victoria and Nacogdoches, Texas, as well as Alexandria and Lafayette, La.

The shortwave trough shifting across New Mexico into Texas on Thursday is the main disruptor in the current quiet weather pattern. With low pressure coming out of the Gulf, this will provide warm, water-laden air.

These mechanisms will not only provide enough instability for heavy rainfall, but also for some thunderstorm activity to turn severe. Remember, severe weather includes gusts greater than 57 mph, hail larger than a quarter, and the possibility of tornadoes.

For this event, we’re looking at gusty winds and even a tornado threat.

The forecast for the heavy rain is still focused on the lower and mid-Mississippi valleys on Thursday with a shift to the central Gulf Coast and Southeast on Friday and Saturday. Marginal risks for excessive rainfall – level one out of four – are issued for all three days, highlighting the chance for isolated flooding.

On Thursday, the heaviest rain is expected from Louisiana through central Arkansas and just to the south and east of St. Louis, Mo. Along this stretch, we can expect 1.50 to 3 inches of rain from Thursday morning to Friday morning at this time.

From Friday morning to Saturday morning, the heavy rainfall shifts to the central Gulf Coast with the heaviest pockets focusing on southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle with 1 to 3 additional inches.

By Saturday, the Southeast, mostly from the central Gulf Coast through Georgia and South Carolina can expect to see totals up to 3 inches of heavy rains before Sunday morning.

Flash flooding is a concern with this much rain over the short period, and especially with the current drought statuses. Keep a close eye on the WeatherRadar and have at least three ways to receive a weather warning.