Study shows tropical activity increase

Many studies have confirmed that human-caused climate change has increased the strength of tropical cyclones across the world. We know that as the planet warms, as do our oceans, which serve as fuel to hurricanes, making them stronger and more destructive.

The big, and highly debated question has been if climate change is also causing the frequency of tropical cyclones to increase, meaning more hurricanes. The questions arise because after all, the satellites that 'warn' us in advance when a storm is brewing to better prepare us were first put into orbit in the early 1970s. Also, nowadays there are many more buoys, ships, and technology-filled instruments to obtain more data about the atmosphere, something we didn't always have in the 19th century and much of the 20th century.

Professor and scientist Kerry Emanuel from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, MIT, took an innovative way to decipher whether we have had an increase in the number of tropical storms globally. Emanuel, instead of using historical data, which can have many faults and shortcomings due to the scarce technology and communication in those times, developed a climate model to reconstruct the past, that is, to see how many storms formed over the last 150 years.

The scientist used high-definition atmospheric models, putting them on top of models with broader global coverage. To the models with greater coverage, he added more reliable climate data available from those times such as sea surface temperatures, and more realistic atmospheric conditions, and feed it the initiation stage of tropical cyclones, also known as tropical waves. He used three sets of data reanalyzes, and he analyzed the results each time to maintain the consistency of the experiment.

Since the mid-19th century, there has been a marked increase in the number of tropical cyclones, mainly over the North Atlantic Ocean. The cause for the increase is unknown at this time. Emanuel says that the reason is still a mystery, but he does not rule out that it can be due to climate change. It is important to emphasize that, although warming occurs at a global level, the impacts are not the same at a global level, this could explain why he only noted an increase over the North Atlantic.

Other experts, also prominent in climate, atmospheric, and tropical research, and equally qualified, have produced their own studies and research and although they do not discredit Emanuel's research, they point out that there are many studies that do not necessarily indicate an increase in the number of storms. But studies, like the one done by Emanuel, with databases, scientific data, and following strict rules to reach results, give hope that every time we can learn more about the history of our planet and a better idea of ​​the impact we make on the world.