What date is it? We are entering mid-April and for many in the South, it has been feeling like summer. When glancing at the Gulf of Mexico this week, there is a chance that you could think we are in hurricane season. Yep! There is a chance to have a tropical or sub-tropical storm this week over the Gulf of Mexico. Let’s go in-depth about what’s happening.

First, be certain that we are not talking about the possibility of a major hurricane. At most, it will be a tropical storm. Regardless if it becomes a tropical system or not, the outcome will be the same: heavy rains for the Gulf States from the coast of Louisiana through the Florida Panhandle this week.

There is an upper-level low that will emerge from Mexico. This upper-level low will intensify and become a surface low as it interacts with residual energy from the cold/stationary front located over the Gulf of Mexico. By Wednesday, a broad low-pressure system will be developed over the central Gulf of Mexico with a north-northeast movement.

The rain will creep in starting on Tuesday over southeastern Louisiana. By Wednesday, rains will get heavier over southeastern Louisiana and spread further inland and also reach southern Mississippi, Alabama, and western Florida.

South Florida will also see an increase in the moisture that will lead to periods of rain and storms as ample moisture moves in with the winds from the west-southwest. Also, the low pressure, if it doesn’t become a tropical system, could carry a warm front that will be moving over the Florida Panhandle, also increasing the risk for showers from south to north.

Looking at rainfall estimates through this week, ending next Sunday, there could be over 4 inches of rain along the coast of Louisiana through the western portion of Florida’s Panhandle. Some isolated spots could receive higher amounts.

In the Florida Peninsula, especially over its east coast, rainfall amounts also point to high ranges. From Jacksonville to Miami there could be 2 to 3 inches of rain, with some areas getting over 3 inches. Along the western half of Florida, from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay area, estimates point to about 1 to 2 inches of rain.

Flash flooding will be the main threat this week across the Gulf Coast and eastern Florida, as rain will be persistent throughout the work week. Please make sure to plan accordingly, and never cross through flooded roads.