Tropical threat brewing in the Gulf, big rainmaker on the way?

The National Hurricane Center has highlighted a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico with a high chance of tropical development this week. Whether or not this storm gets a name, it will likely be a big rainmaker.

With well-above-average sea surface temperatures and a La Niña set to come into play sometime in the late summer and early autumn, hurricane forecasts are calling for a very busy Atlantic Hurricane Season. The first named storm of the season may be upon us by mid-week.

The National Hurricane Center has highlighted an area of low pressure forming over the Bay of Campeche with a high chance of development over the next seven days. Models indicate that a tropical depression or storm could form as soon as mid-week. The first name on this year's list is Alberto.

No matter what happens with the development of this system, a lot of rain is expected to impact parts of Mexico, Central America, and the western Gulf Coast. Texas, in particular, will likely feel the brunt of this system in the U.S., with gusty winds, high surf, coastal flooding, and heavy downpours that may cause flash flooding inland, all possible.

The Weather Prediction Center already has parts of the Gulf Coast, including coastal Texas, under a moderate risk of excessive rainfall. Weather & Radar's expert meteorologists will be tracking this system with our daily tropical weather updates which can be found in our Breakfast Briefs.