Tropical update: Bye Cindy's remnants, new disturbance

The tropics continue to be fairly quiet this week as we await the July 4 (long, for some) Weekend. Let´s talk about what´s happening now and what could possibly happen in the next few days in the tropics.

The remnants of what was once Tropical Storm Cindy now have no chance of reformation. The system has lost its battle with the very strong wind shear, and it is not expected to reform into a tropical system.

There is another area just south-southeast of Bermuda which is linked to a trough that could have a chance of becoming a tropical system in the next 7 days. Currently, the chance is at 20 percent as there is still some moderate wind shear in this area, but conditions might become more conducive for its tropical development.

There are two options for this system if it were to develop or come close to developing. Scenario one would be for it to continue traveling northward but encounter an exiting trough that will absorb the system before it reaches Nova Scotia. The second scenario is that the trough takes a bit longer to exit southeastern Canada, allowing the system to gain a bit more strength as it travels over water and bring heavy rains and gusty winds to Nova Scotia, on Sunday or Monday. As they say, timing is everything.

Seems like a strengthening El Niño will dominate the tropical pattern for the next two to three weeks. Stronger than average wind shear will be in favor over the tropical Atlantic. Regardless we must still watch closely as there is plenty of warm water present and a rogue system can never be discounted.