Tropical update: Caribbean wave could slowly develop

As we continue to monitor the tropics, there is a tropical wave about to enter the Caribbean, moving over the Windward Islands on Thursday, and another wave freshly emerging from Africa onto the Atlantic.

First, the tropical wave that emerged from Africa is moving fast at about 20 mph to the west. It has a chance to develop next week. Conditions will become more favorable, but this system will still have to encounter very dry air that could take its life.

A closer, and much better organized tropical wave is about to enter the southern Caribbean. It is moving west-northwest at about 10 mph. This system will slowly enter a more favorable environment to acquire a name, but there are still a lot of question marks. It seems like this system could lose a bit of speed, as it battles with some dry air located its north and a bit to its west. So don’t be surprised if tomorrow’s tropical update looks very similar to today’s.

The traffic will continue to be busy all the way east as more tropical waves will continue to emerge and there are some models that show robust development of a storm for the first week of September. The key point to remember is that, usually, when a system develops strongly closer to Africa, it often stays as a fish storm, moving northward.

The July and August stretch was the quietest period since 1982, as the Atlantic did not have a named storm between July 3 and August 22. We can thank the robust dry air mass that has been in place for hindering tropical development across the Atlantic.