That pesky tropical disturbance located around 750 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands has dropped the chances for tropical development to 40 percent in the next two days.

It happens, and we often repeat it. Tropical disturbances or tropical waves really have a mind of their own (the main reason why weather models don’t usually have a good grasp on them until they have a better-defined center of circulation). Invest 96L, the same wave we have been watching for about a week already has less chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 2 days.

If you remember, our Monday’s tropical update stated that the disturbance has a 70 percent chance of developing within the next 48 hours. The chance has dropped to 40 percent as its area of dry and dusty air did more harm to it than expected. It basically tried to suffocate the storm a bit on Monday afternoon, and it left it a bit battered.

Regardless there is a fair chance that this system can still become Emily this week. The only thing against it is that late on Tuesday the system will be turning northward and will likely encounter more windshear and a front that will probably sweep the system away. Invest 96L’s development period is short before its chances for formation drop rapidly.

We will have another advisory on Wednesday morning.