Tropical update: Disturbance near Bermuda, a look at the Pacific

A surface trough, located a few hundred miles south of Bermuda, crawls slowly to the north between 5 and 10 mph. This system has a low chance, 20 percent to be exact, of developing within the next 7 days. Wind shear in this region is currently preventing this system from becoming better organized. But wind shear could turn weaker and allow this system to intensify in the coming days.

As the general motion is to the north, we are closely monitoring the pattern across the United States as its destination will depend on a front or troughs exiting the Northeastern U.S. or southeastern Canada. We still have Thursday and Friday to determine a better outlook on this system. If a storm were to approach Nova Scotia, it would be early next week. But it will all depend on the timing of the systems moving east and leaving North America.

Across the rest of the Atlantic Basin, the tropics will go quiet for the next week or so. The chances for tropical storm formation are low as there is a thick and extensive plume of Saharan Dust exiting Africa, which tends to prevent tropical storm formation and strong wind shear where there is no dust.

The abnormally quiet conditions across the Eastern Pacific have come to an end. Not only did the first storm develop this week, but this system, Adrian, also quickly intensified into a hurricane. Luckily Hurricane Adrian does not represent a worry for Mexico as it moves away, but Tropical Depression Two might.

Tropical Depression Two formed late on Wednesday and is moving parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico and this system will be bordering a big chunk of the country’s west coast. Tropical Storm conditions will start on Thursday across parts of the state of Guerrero, including the popular city of Acapulco. Further north, along the coast of Michoacan and Colima, there are tropical storm watches as the system is expected to continue moving to the north-northwest, paralleling these states through the rest of the week into the weekend. It is forecast that this system will become a hurricane on Saturday. Heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and dangerous seas are expected.