Tropical update: GFS winds down, still quiet out there

With plenty of severe weather to be monitored this Wednesday across the Southern region of the United States, we are fortunate that the tropics continue to be quiet. Let’s talk about what’s happening... or the lack of happenings.

Tap on the picture below to get the live blog of today's severe weather threat.

The Global Forecast System (GFS) model continues to hint at a system forming over the western Caribbean, but as we mentioned last week and earlier this week, this model suffers from this anticipation antics every year, and it’s usually a fantasy. The latest runs, as we predicted, have started to back down in intensity and I wouldn’t doubt that in the coming days, it retracts the whole thing.

Regardless, we will see an increase in moisture across the western Caribbean extending toward Cuba early next week with the arrival of a robust tropical wave. Will it develop? It will depend on the amount of wind shear present. Also, there could be an exiting front over parts of Florida that could make this moisture linger in place a bit longer.

It is still too early to tell how strong the wind shear will be then and the timing of the mentioned front. Stay tuned.