Home / Editor's Pick /

Tropical update: GFS winds down, still quiet out there

05:34 PM
June 14, 2023

Tropical update
GFS winds down, still quiet out there

Tropical update that could move over the western Caribbean early next week.

With plenty of severe weather to be monitored this Wednesday across the Southern region of the United States, we are fortunate that the tropics continue to be quiet. Let’s talk about what’s happening... or the lack of happenings.

Tap on the picture below to get the live blog of today's severe weather threat.

The Global Forecast System (GFS) model continues to hint at a system forming over the western Caribbean, but as we mentioned last week and earlier this week, this model suffers from this anticipation antics every year, and it’s usually a fantasy. The latest runs, as we predicted, have started to back down in intensity and I wouldn’t doubt that in the coming days, it retracts the whole thing.

Tug of war: warm waters vs. El Niñoread more

Regardless, we will see an increase in moisture across the western Caribbean extending toward Cuba early next week with the arrival of a robust tropical wave. Will it develop? It will depend on the amount of wind shear present. Also, there could be an exiting front over parts of Florida that could make this moisture linger in place a bit longer.

It is still too early to tell how strong the wind shear will be then and the timing of the mentioned front. Stay tuned.

Irene Sans
More on the topic
Derecho iowa
Sunday, June 22, 2025

Stay severe weather-aware

What are derechos?
Sunday, June 22, 2025

Why & how does it work?

High pressure & extreme heat
rip current
Saturday, July 12, 2025

As more head to the coast

Rip currents & safety tips
All weather news
This might also interest you
Tuesday, July 15, 2025

Daily briefing

Flash flood risk continues for Florida, Mid-Atlantic
Saturday, July 12, 2025

Dusty twisters

Dust devils: not exactly a tornado
Wednesday, July 16, 2025

Daily briefing

Severe weather moves to the Midwest, NE flash flood
All articles
Weather & Radar

www.weatherandradar.com

instagramfacebookthreadsContact uslinkList
Privacy policy | Legal info | Accessibility statement