Tropical update: Looming Gulf of Mexico formation?

There are two tropical waves located over the far eastern Atlantic that could develop this week, but closer to home we are now monitoring an area where a tropical system could be born early next week. Plus, what is going on in the Pacific and why is California on our radar? Let’s discuss.

First, let’s start with the less worrisome waves. The tropical waves that emerged from Africa continue to be thousands of miles away from the contiguous U.S. Looking at long-range models, it seems like these two waves will continue moving west-northwest.

The first one (looking from west to east) seems like it will get caught in dry air, which could hinder further tropical development in the coming days, still, this wave has a 50 percent chance of development within the next seven days.

The second wave has a 40 percent chance of development within the next seven days. Luckily, this second wave (in this series) will remain over water. Remember I mentioned the semi-permanent Bermuda High? It seems like it will indeed stay eastward, allowing this system to swoosh northward, staying away from the Americas.

Now, remember that broad area of low pressure I mentioned on Tuesday morning? Let’s say that area is still brewing. There will be a surge of thunderstorms emerging from the far western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico that will be traveling west toward the western Gulf Coast. On Wednesday morning there is a 20 percent chance for this area to develop into a tropical system within the next 7 days.

Residents across the Gulf Coast, especially those along the Texas Coast should monitor very closely how this cluster of storms will move and its evolution. This is a system that, although it has some time to develop, will develop (or be named) while it’s close to land. Now is the time to review your hurricane plans.

So what about the Pacific activity? Well, we're keeping an eye on Tropical Storm Hilary, which just formed off the southwest coast of Mexico and is expected to move northwest, then northward through the next several days, up the Baja California Coast. We could see the remnants or even a weak tropical storm move into southern California early next week.

Although tropical remnants are not unusual in SoCal and the Southwest bringing rainfall, since 1950, California has only had five tropical systems - four depressions and one tropical storm - make it across the border. A rare occurrence since water temperatures here are cooler, the mountainous terrain breaks things up, and atmospheric conditions are less conducive for a tropical system to sustain strength.

We will continue to monitor the tropics closely and bring you prompt updates.