Tropical update: Robust wave tracking toward the Americas

We are closely watching the next tropical wave which increased its chances of becoming a tropical system to 30 percent within the next 7 days.

As forecasted, the two tropical disturbances that we were monitoring at the beginning of the week, one over the Caribbean and the other one a few hundred miles north of the big Caribbean islands, lose their chances to develop into tropical systems. They have both been beaten by strong wind shear and are expected to just continue their path as open waves.

A surge of moisture will affect South Florida on Wednesday and Thursday as the tropical wave moves over the region. In fact, some of the thunderstorm activity associated with this wave arrived in parts of Miami-Dade Wednesday morning. Some storms could drop heavy rain, frequent lightning, and strong gusts. These rains will limit the excruciating heat that has been present in South Florida since July 4.

Our eyes shift to the eastern Atlantic where a robust tropical wave is located. There is a growing chance for this tropical wave to develop into a tropical system once it comes closer to the northeast of the Caribbean. The disturbance will continue traveling west-northwest and there could be better organization later this week into the weekend. The next name on the list is Emily.

We will bring you updates as necessary during the coming days. Please make sure to review your hurricane plans. We are coming onto the busiest weeks of the season and although there is an El Niño present, and it tends to reduce tropical activity there are plenty of warm waters out there to sustain tropical activity. It only takes one storm to make it a busy season for you.