Tropical update: Tropical waves & the warm Caribbean

Here we goooo! (and we do not mean this in a happy way!) The factory of African waves is officially open for the season, but we should also monitor the western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico in the coming week. Plus, what is going on in the Pacific and why is California on our radar? Let’s discuss.

As we have been mentioning for at least 10 days, this week more tropical wave activity from the eastern Atlantic was coming alive. There are two areas where there could be tropical activity later this week. One of the two tropical waves has not yet emerged from Africa, but as soon as they move over the central tropical Atlantic, they could organize into tropical systems.

We must wait until they move over the tropical Atlantic waters to see where exactly they will head, but for now, models show a trend that moves both waves to the west-northwest.

In the short term, meaning through Friday, August 18, 2023, both waves will likely still be developing. After the weekend, if one of these waves enters the Caribbean (more likely the second wave) there could be some development then, as the atmosphere will be more conducive for tropical development with plenty of warm waters and likely low wind shear.

Regardless of if it is the second tropical wave or another system, the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico are the area we are monitoring closely. The waters in this region are warm and there are plenty of signs that this region is slowly awakening. This is more worrisome as it could be closer to land. But again, any formation in this area would be after next weekend, toward the last 7 to 10 days of August.

So what about the Pacific activity? Well, we're keeping an eye on Tropical Storm Hilary which just formed off the southwest coast of Mexico and is expected to move northwest then northward through the next several days, up the Baja California Coast. We could see the remnants or even a weak tropical storm move into southern California early next week.

Although tropical remnants are not unusual in SoCal and the Southwest bringing rainfall, since 1950, California has only had five tropical systems - four depressions and one tropical storm - make it across the border. A rare occurrence since water temperatures here are cooler, the mountainous terrain breaks things up, and atmospheric conditions are less conducive for a tropical system to sustain strength.

We will be bringing you updates every morning here in Weather & Radar and have our Task Force ready as soon as one system threatens land.